Latest · A personal forecasting experiment
Take the human-hour estimate a coding agent already gives you, then translate it into agent labor and wall-clock time using evidence from completed traces.
About two hours of planning with agents often unlocks ~80 human-equivalent hours of execution: ~50 tokens/sec of thought-and-code, two to four in parallel, and planning that is usually 25–50% of wall-clock (less share as the work gets larger). Measured conversion 43.8×; I round the belief to ~40×.
About the publication
Local Gradient publishes evidence-led engineering studies in two forms: a rich interactive edition for people and an Open Knowledge Format v0.2 bundle for tools, archives, and future models—articles plus portable skills as concept documents.